Since 2020 the continent has witnessed not less than 10 successful and attempted putsches in West and Central Africa and the Sahel region. Until the recent failed coups in Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, Africa recorded junta takeovers in Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Chad, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon.
Since the beginning of last year, The Gambia and Sao Tome and Principe have all witnessed failed coup attempts.
“I think first and foremost it has been insecurity and terrorism; countries are dealing with significant insecurity,” US ambassador to the UN Thomas-Greenfield tells The Africa Report in reference to the factors leading to the coups.
“It’s also a lack of [good] governance [and] lack of providing opportunity to the people,” she adds.
Has democracy failed Africa?
Unlike previous insurrections, civilians now appear to be backing the wave of coups in Africa, raising questions about the effectiveness of democratic governance in the continent.
According to an Afrobarometer survey dated September 2022, sentiments against elections as enablers of change have risen by 6% in 34 African countries. Although respondents said regular, honest and open elections were the best guarantor of their interests, only 44% believed elections help voters remove bad leaders.
Overall, support for elections has dropped in 26 of 30 African countries including Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, according to the independent political survey body, adding that even in a model democracy like South Africa, the support for elections has dropped 20 percentage points over the past decade.
Thomas-Greenfield says democracy has not failed the continent, adding that it works “when governments deliver for their people”.
“The failure in these countries [coup-hit nations] is not the failure of democracy,” Thomas-Greenfield says, speaking to this journalist on the sidelines of the just-ended UN Peacekeeping ministerial meeting in Ghana’s capital, Accra.
“It is the failure of these countries to implement policies that are democratic – policies that address the expectations and the needs of their people,” she says.
“It’s about creating opportunities, jobs, and education so that young people feel vested in their countries’ future,” the top US diplomat adds.
She condemned the spate of coups in Africa, saying, “The military that takes over the country is not equipped to govern. They are not equipped to provide the support that the population needs.”
Afrobarometer findings from 28 African countries surveyed in 2021-2022 show that only 43% of adults say militaries should never intervene in politics, while a slim majority (53%) are willing to countenance this option if elected leaders abuse power.
Thomas-Greenfield says people need education and jobs, which is certainly the case for junta-led Niger, where the median age is 15.
“Many of these young people tend to welcome these coups, but they very quickly get disappointed that the military is not able to provide for their needs,” she says.
Touching on the stalemate in Niger, she says the junta must “return to a civilian-run government immediately”, opposing the proposed three-year transition plan by the putschists.
“That’s too long, and we know that ECOWAS and neighbouring countries are engaging to push them to go back to the barracks and that’s what we are doing as well.”
Security concerns
Armed terrorist and extremist organisations are rapidly expanding their operations from the Sahel region to coastal West Africa, capitalising on the instability prevalent in many of these nations, exacerbated by porous borders and rampant smuggling.
While Ghana has not reported any jihadist attacks within its borders, neighbouring Benin has experienced approximately 20 incursions from across the border since 2021, as reported by its military. Additionally, Togo has faced attacks along its northern frontier.
Niger finds itself contending with two jihadist insurgencies – one emanates from the southeast, a spillover from the protracted conflict in Nigeria. The other manifests in the west, where militants cross over from Mali and Burkina Faso.
The toll is particularly grim in Burkina Faso, with over 17,000 fatalities reported in attacks since 2015. This year alone has witnessed more than 6,000 deaths, according to data compiled by the non-governmental organisation Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).
The military in Mali is also battling Tuareg rebels. The security crisis in the landlocked West African country has been exacerbated as UN peacekeepers deployed to Mali in 2013 began withdrawing on the orders of the junta. The separatist group wants independence for northern Mali and is opposed to the army taking control of bases vacated by the thousands of departing UN troops.
Worse with Wagner
The junta has recruited the services of the mercenary group Wagner to restore stability. However, Thomas-Greenfield says this decision was misguided, adding that the Russian government-backed militia is causing more harm than good, and taking advantage.
“They are not going in to support the people, they are supporting regimes staying in power, and they are not doing it for free. They are taking millions of dollars worth of resources to pay themselves for causing instability,” she says.
“We’ve seen that they’ve committed human rights violations. These countries are even less stable,” says Thomas-Greenfield.
In Mali, even with the junta-led government, the security situation has not improved, it’s gotten worse with Wagner, she says.
“Wagner is not a stabilising force, it supports authoritarianism and violation of human rights,” says the former US assistant secretary of state for African affairs.
Since the beginning of the Biden-Harris administration, the US has invested $6.5bn to support security, democracy, human rights, and governance on the continent. Thomas-Greenfield says the US government will continue to work with African leaders through regional groupings such as ECOWAS and the African Union to maintain peace on the continent and also make coups not the answer to a crisis.
“We’ve imposed sanctions on a number of these countries as well as individuals if they are not contributing to finding a path towards peace,” she says, adding that the US partnership with the African Union is key to making a change in government. Sanctions have also helped,” she says.
“I want to see change take place as quickly as possible … we’re continuing to partner with them to find a path forward so that stability can be re-established in these countries,” she adds.
