The Danger of Photo-op Diplomacy

Recent satellite imagery of North Korea appears to show that country making substantial improvements to one of its nuclear research facilities.  This comes just weeks after U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s summit meeting with North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, and Trump’s public announcement that ‘there’s no longer a nuclear threat on the Korean Peninsula.

Though marred by widely circulated images of Trump saluting a North Korean general, the summit was generally regarded as a positive step toward a diplomatic settlement of what could be one of the most dangerous situations of this century. As with many of the Trump Administration’s actions, though, this one seems to be mostly smoke and mirrors, and naïve, wishful thinking on the part of a president more impressed with appearance than substance.

In some ways this brings to mind George W. Bush’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ press appearance during the second Gulf War, just before things in Iraq went haywire. The difference this time, however, is that the stakes are infinitely higher, and the situation is even more dire. Iraq was found, after an exhaustive investigation by U.S. and international agencies, not to actually have nuclear weapons, despite some evidence of its efforts to get them. North Korea, as we well know, not only has a number of nuclear bombs, but has made great strides to mount them on missiles capable of reaching U.S. shores.

This tendency the U.S. president has of conducting off-the-cuff diplomacy, consisting of photos of smiling leaders shaking hands followed by rosy announcements of ‘victory,’ might play well to a certain audience, but it does nothing to change the reality on the ground. And, this latest imagery shows what those familiar with North Korea already know; North Korea has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons, the only bargaining chip Kim has in dealing with his more powerful adversary.

It will be interesting to see how Trump deals with this latest development. Clearly a rebuke of his early, off-the-cuff assessment, will he admit he was premature in his announcement and take the necessary steps to get things back on track? Anyone who has observed the man during his time in the Oval Office, and who is willing to admit that when it comes to the complexities and nuances of foreign policy he’s clueless, will have to conclude that he won’t. Incapable of admitting mistakes and lashing out viciously at anyone who dares accuse him of being wrong, he’ll probably tweet some non sequitur, or even worse, ignore the whole thing. No, there is actually something worse he can, and might, do. As he did when the intelligence community published an assessment of Russian meddling in the U.S. election, or the FBI and DOJ did their jobs on the investigation of Russian involvement with the Trump campaign, he might tweet derogatory invective in an effort to undermine this latest finding.

When personal image is the thing foremost in your mind—his mind—and you appear to be ruled by ego gratification and the adulation of others, your actions are not likely to be rational; at least, not rational to rational people.

It would be nice to think that there are a few sane people working in the White House who will sit the man down and explain the ‘real’ world to him. Nice, but not bloody likely. This is a man who, like a mafia don, values personal loyalty above all, and who is not likely to listen to anyone trying to tell him something he doesn’t want to hear. In fact, that person is likely to be looking for a new job shortly after making the effort.

Public diplomacy, reaching out to public audiences to get your message across, is an effective tool in the soft power toolbox, but public relations diplomacy, getting the right picture in front of the largest audience to make yourself look good for a few moments, is a path to disorder, and a dangerous way to conduct international relations. As a matter of fact, it’s a pretty lousy way to conduct domestic affairs as well—but, that’s another story for another day.

What Would Emily Post Do?

Having watched the Trump Kakistocracy trample all over human dignity for over a year, I can certainly understand the frustration and anger that would lead patrons to boo the homeland security secretary in a Mexican restaurant, or why the owner of a small independent restaurant would ask the White House mouth piece to leave—I can understand it, but I cannot approve of such behavior. I was distressed when I saw Representative Maxine Waters on TV calling on people to confront these bullies whenever they see them in public, to make it uncomfortable for them.

You see, this kind of behavior is what they do. At the very time spokesperson Sanders was lamenting the call for people to shame the kakistocrats in public, the Kakistocrat-in-Chief was engaged in public name-calling. That is not who we are as a society—at least, not the society I want my grandchildren to grow up in. We should aspire to be a society of people who treat each other with courtesy, regardless of our religions or political affiliation, gender, race, or sexual preference. What we should not be doing is crawling into the sewer these people inhabit.

If we wish to highlight their bad behavior, I can assure you, we will not accomplish it by being even half as bad as them. We do it by being just the opposite of them. Where they try to incite hatred and fear, we encourage love and confidence. When they take actions to drive wedges between us, we work to build bridges.

So, let’s not confront these people when we see them in public places. Allow them to enjoy their meals unmolested. If they make eye contact—and the ones who are still capable of feeling shame probably won’t—smile. That will drive them wild trying to figure out what you’re really thinking about them.

You won’t change their behavior by doing this, but you will show our children that the clown act they see on TV is not how real, adult Americans behave.

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ASCENDANCE OF THE KAKISTOCRACY

During the English Civil War in 1644, speaking to supporters of King Charles I, Paul Gosnold lamented the rise of the Kakistocracy. Those who read former CIA Director John Brennan’s April 2018 tweet to President Trump have probably already looked this word up, but for those who haven’t, a kakistocracy is a ‘government of the worst, most corrupt, and most dishonest.’ Brennan used the word to describe what the Trump Administration is doing to America.

I have the greatest respect for Mr. Brennan and wish to state for the record that he has, in a short tweet, described exactly what is happening to the ‘Land of the Free.’ The turmoil of the past few weeks surrounding the administrations ‘zero tolerance’ policy towards immigrants on the Mexican border, resulting in the separation of over 2,000 children (some infants) from their parents, serves to prove just how right Brennan is in his assessment.

First, a bit about this term’s meaning and origins. It is derived from two Greek words; kakistos, meaning worst, and kratos, meaning rule. In other words, a system of government run by the worst, least qualified, most unscrupulous citizens.

Let the events speak for themselves.

In April, the Trump Administration began a ‘zero tolerance’ policy, the intent of which was to prosecute as many illegal border crossing offenses as possible. Because the Justice Department cannot prosecute children along with their parents, the new policy initiated an upsurge in family separations, with an estimated 2,000 children of all ages being taken away from their detained parent or parents in April and May. Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, at a White House briefing maintained that DHS does ‘not have a policy of separating families at the border,’ and while the administration’s policy does not specify separation, the reality is that this is just what happened. Pressed, though, she acknowledged that separation is an inevitable consequence of the policy. Nielsen and other administration officials often cite similar actions by previous administrations, especially the Obama Administration, and blame congress for a law that requires them to do what they do. The difference is that in previous administrations, as odious as the practice is no matter who does it, there were at least guidelines prioritizing deportation actions against gang members, those posing a security risk, and those with felony records. The Trump Administration’s policy has no priorities—everyone caught attempting to cross illegally is swept up in the dragnet. The executive order issued by Trump in January 2017 refers only to ‘criminal offenses’ which can include misdemeanors, such as illegal entry, as well.

In some cases, children separated from parents are placed with relatives in the U.S., but in many, they are held in what amounts to juvenile concentration camps. Some child advocates have reported scenes of children in these facilities crying for their mothers while staff are prohibited from having physical contact with them.

To add insult to injury, Attorney General Jeff Sessions, on national TV, even used a biblical passage to defend the government’s policy—which the homeland secretary had previously stated ‘didn’t exist,’ and which Trump blames on Democrats in congress, saying ‘they gave us that law.’ Several things wrong with this scenario. One, Sessions, tone deaf on issues of race and ethnicity at the best of times, used a biblical passage that was at one time used to justify slavery, and Nielsen can’t seem to get her terminology straight. Trump, as usual, blames someone else for a policy that he, as president, can change with a phone call.

And, speaking of his powers, just days before he issued a vaguely-worded executive order calling for an end to family separations (which failed to address those already separated), he told a reporter, ‘we can’t do it by executive order.’

Trump also alluded to the separations as bargaining ‘leverage’ with congress in his efforts to get funding for his border wall and other immigration priorities. This is in sharp contrast to his statement when very publicly signed his executive order, when he said that ‘anyone with a heart would be against separating children from their parent.’

At times, various administration officials, including Sessions, have said that the prospect of family separation was a deterrent, a claim that has been debunked by the fact that the number of arrivals at the border have actually increased since the policy was implemented. And, Trump continues to blame the ‘Democrat’s law’ for the debacle, saying that they must work with their GOP colleagues to pass the law that he wants, a hardline bill—despite the fact that he has threatened to veto even a hardline bill that the GOP tabled.

The rhetoric coming from the White House has been, and continues to be, mind-blowing. Trump has said that without his tough policies, ‘millions will swamp the border and infest our country.’ Where those ‘millions’ will come from he does not say.

I could go on, but the taste of bile in my mouth as I write this is becoming overwhelming. It appears that the kakistocrats have taken over. It’s like the inmates taking over the prison.

Maybe this is the beginning of the third-party system in this country. The Democrats, those Republicans who’ve come to their senses and want to go back to Bush’s compassionate conservatism, and the Kakistocratic Party, made up with those who have glued themselves to the cult of Trumpian personality and seem to be willing to go over the cliff with their hero.

Forever the optimist, I keep telling myself that this, like a kidney stone will eventually pass. But, like a kidney stone, it’s going to be a painful experience.

Shades of Manzanar: Trump's actions on immigration could destroy the GOP

The Trump Administration has been subjected to a barrage of criticism from many corners over its zero-tolerance immigration policy that has resulted in approximately 2,000 children being separated from their parents and placed in facilities reminiscent of WWII Japanese internment camps.

This issue has created fissures within the Republican establishment like no other, and if sober, mature minds don’t come up with a solution, could be the issue that puts the final nail in the GOP’s coffin.

In the face of criticism of the policy of separating children from parents when the parents are detained for illegally entering the U.S., the president has blamed the Democrats, an accusation that fails to convince any but his most diehard supporters given the fact that the GOP controls the House, Senate, and White House. The law allowing this inhumane practice has been in place since the Bush Administration and was applied in a limited way in both that and the Obama Administration, but it wasn’t until the current administration that it has been so widely applied. Moreover, Trump, though he publicly says he ‘hates to see kids taken from their parents,’ is using the tactic as a bargaining chip to force congress to cave on some of his other immigration demands, a callous attitude if there ever was one.

And then there’s Attorney-General Jeff Sessions using the Bible to justify the practice, and not so smartly using a biblical passage that was at one time used to justify the practice of slavery.

It’s not just Democrats and human rights activists objecting to this odious practice, either. Church groups have spoken out against it. Some prominent Republicans have expressed t heir disapproval. Even figures within the Trump Administration, and other Trump supporters, such as short-time White House communications director, Anthony Scaramucci, have come out publicly against it.

If the bulk of the Republican Party, with its trademark ‘family values’ stance, doesn’t publicly denounce this practice, and then take immediate legislative action to end it; if the conservative religious institutions don’t speak out against it; and if the administration doesn’t step back and consider the long-term consequences of its actions, we could reach a crisis point, and the GOP could find itself on the brink of extinction or irrelevancy. With the exception of that portion of the American population that is so angry that it cares about nothing about assuaging its anger, I can’t imagine the majority of the American people not being shocked at what’s going on.

This is not my America. Have we not learned from Manzanar? As bad as that was, we at least kept families together? Just because an act is legal doesn’t make it right, and I’d like to point out to Mr. Sessions that the Bible also says that the laws must be just and moral. We have a moral duty to oppose unjust, immoral laws. That’s the America I want to live in again. Forget ‘Make American Great Again,’ it’s always been great, let’s focus on making America ‘Good’ again.

I’m convinced that we will eventually wake up and do the right thing. I just wonder if the GOP will still be sleeping when that happens.

When Rhetoric replaces Reason: How to Screw Up a Good Thing

As someone who has been a fervent critic of Donald Trump even before he was elected president, I will surprise everyone by starting off this piece by complimenting him for being able to bring the North Koreans to the negotiating table. While the method he used to do it was highly unorthodox—and dangerous—it achieved a worthy end.

Now comes the follow-on assessment.

If Trump had simply let the outcome of his meeting with Kim Jong-un stand, perhaps making a somewhat anodyne statement about how historic it was and it presaged long and tough negotiations to achieve our ultimate aim of complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, my compliments would stand. But, Donald J. Trump, it seems, will always be Donald J. Trump. It’s always about him, and he cannot seem to resist making little ad hoc remarks that land like the proverbial dog doo in the punchbowl.

Here are a few examples.

“There is no longer a nuclear threat,” he tweeted. You have got to be kidding. Unlike Iran, which had yet to actually develop a weapon, North Korea has several nukes and has tested delivery systems capable of reaching US territory. No threat indeed. Ask the South Koreans or Japanese, and you’ll get a different answer to that question.

“Kim’s a tough guy, but a good negotiator. I trust him. Sure, he’s done some bad things, but so have many others.” WTF! When did we decide the US President was a publicist for Kim Jong-un? Just off the top of my head I can think of three or four diplomatically-worded statements that would’ve been far better than this.

“We’re stopping the war games. They’re provocative.” That’s a big concession on our part; not necessarily one I would completely disagree with, but not done in the way Trump did it. A public announcement, standing next to South Korea’s enemy and having not warned them in advance. Oh, and by the way, using terminology from North Korean propaganda. We call them military exercises, Mr. President, not war games, and they’re meant to strengthen capability for prevention of hostilities, not to provoke. Sheesh!

I could go on and on, but you get the point. Sometimes, it’s a good idea to do what my grandmother used to say, ‘keep your mouth shut.’ It’s certainly not a good idea to say whatever pops into your mind without considering how it plays with multiple audiences, or how it makes you sound.

Just a small piece of advice from the peanut gallery. I, for one, hope the negotiations going forward will yield success. They are going to be long and hard. Unlike a TV reality show, there won’t be retakes, and the stakes are high. A little less reckless rhetoric and a bit more sober reflection would be welcomed at this point.

The Hole Keeps Getting Deeper

There’s a saying I remember from my army days; ‘when you’re in a hole, stop digging.’ Watching the trajectory of events in US politics over the past several weeks that saying keeps coming to mind.

I sometimes wonder if I’m being paranoid in my fear that in both domestic and international relations, we’ve been dropped in a big pit, and the shoveler-in-chief, rather than stopping and reflecting on the consequences of his actions and words, just continues to dig.

Here are the indicators that worry me.

On the one hand, we bag the Iran nuclear deal that, while not perfect, was a step in the right direction, while at the same time push frantically forward to make a ‘deal’ with the North Korean regime over an existing nuclear weapons capability—which, by the way, North Korea is unlikely to ever relinquish. We have people scrambling to organize a June 12 summit meeting before we’ve had all of the preliminary meetings to set the stage for a realistically productive summit. A case of putting the cart before the horse if I’ve ever seen one. The summit will, in my opinion, based upon over thirty years of experience in international relations as a diplomatic practitioner, either be a total bust, and leave us in worse shape than before, or it will be a colossal PR exercise with both leaders claiming a public relations victory. The North Koreans will be going into the summit with a victory of sorts—Kim Jong-un has already been blessed with desired legitimacy merely by Trump agreeing to the meeting.

The other troubling sign (or signs) relate to our deteriorating relations with our G-7 allies. Tariffs on Canadian goods for ‘national security’ reasons, causing Canada to be a bit cheesed off with us. Man, when the Canadians are mad at you, things are really bad. The administration’s response to this: ‘our relations with our allies are a 10, because the people smile at me.’ And then there’s the call for including Russia in the G-7, making it the G-8. I’m sure the Russians like that, but the G-7, in response to our heavy-handed and bullying approach is already the G-6 plus a weak one. How is including Russia in the G-7 contributing to US security, when our own actions are threatening to embroil us in a global trade war that will cause many American industries and workers to take it ‘in the shorts’ when the affected countries retaliate. Who is the winner from this suggestion? Why, the Russians, of course.

Then, there was the action to relax sanctions against the Chinese firm ZTE, to help reduce Chinese unemployment. How does that help the US economically or politically? ZTE is a company that has long been suspected of unsavory anti-US activities, both economic and security related. So, if we relax sanctions, we help China, but what US company or individual benefits? I think most rational people who follow events closely enough know the answer to that question, and those helped by this action are all in the same family.

We’re so deep in a hole now, it’s hard to see the rim. And, what are we doing? We keep digging.

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